Grains call
Asymmetric upside on rice + soy
Rice supply inelastic; India ban risk = step-function spike. Soy: NE Brazil + US delayed planting = limited buffer if Argentina also dry. Wheat less exposed (Russia + EU buffer).
● Observed status
NOAA PSL · daily
Ocean-battery scenario · educational
The Pacific is charging a global battery of 11M TWh.
A first-principles tour of the 2026 El Nino - its mechanics, dynamics, and the cascading impacts on food, energy, and supply chains. Compare it directly with 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16.
DF
“The Pacific Ocean is acting like a giant battery. Trade winds pile warm water west - that water stores energy. When winds slacken, the battery releases east. Roughly 11 million terawatt-hours of heat sloshing around - enough to bend the jet stream, fail monsoons, dry Australia, drown the Andes, and break Indian agriculture.”
Strength
Drag to preview the world
La NinaNeutralModerateStrongSuper
● ENSO Archive · Observed
NOAA PSL · daily
The instrumental ENSO record, 1950 to today.
Every value here is observed public data from NOAA's Physical Sciences Laboratory — no forecasts, no invented numbers. Events are derived from the Oceanic Niño Index using the official CPC rule (≥5 consecutive 3-month seasons at ±0.5°C).
Multi-index comparison
Monthly ENSO indices, overlaid
Source · NOAA PSL psl.noaa.gov · ERSST.v5
+0.5/−0.5°C = El Niño / La Niña threshold (ONI · Niño SST)
Event timeline
Every El Niño & La Niña since 1950
Event table
| Event ▾ | Type | Strength | Peak | Months |
|---|
Compare to a past event
Overlay any event vs. the latest 24 months
Live ENSO archive is briefly unavailable. The historical narrative below remains fully available.
● Live · Weather Watch
Right now in the affected regions
Live current conditions from Open-Meteo across 8 key ENSO-impacted regions, plus active disaster events from NASA EONET. Refreshes on load.
● Fetching
● Live disaster events · NASA EONET
LoadingNational warning centres
WMO
Open →Severe Weather Centre
Official warnings from every national meteorological service worldwide.
IMD India
Open →Monsoon Mission
India Meteorological Dept · monsoon, daily bulletins, cyclone tracking.
BOM AU
Open →ENSO Outlook
Australian BOM · bushfire, drought, ENSO tracker.
NOAA NWS
Open →National Weather Service
US severe weather, drought monitor, atmospheric rivers.
ENSO realtime indicators
Tropical Tidbits / NOAA PMEL / CPC-style live diagnostics. Eight ENSO indices monitored against the 1991-2020 climatology. Anomalies sustained >+0.5°C in Nino 3.4 = El Nino; >+1.5°C = strong; >+2.0°C = super.
ONI
El Nino
+1.7°C
3-mo running mean
Threshold +0.5 · super +2.0
Nino 3.4
Strong
+1.8°C
5N-5S, 170W-120W
Weekly OISST v2
Nino 1+2
Coastal
+2.4°C
Eastern Pacific / Peru
Coastal anchovy fishery exposed
Nino 4
Central
+1.2°C
5N-5S, 160E-150W
East-Pacific signature dominant
SOI
Below avg
-1.5
Tahiti minus Darwin SLP
Sustained negative = El Nino
MEI
Strong+
+1.5
Multivariate ENSO Index
SST + SLP + winds + OLR
OLR anom
Suppressed W
-15
W/m² · Indonesia conv.
Convection shifted east
Trade winds
Weakened
-3.0
m/s anomaly · 5N-5S
Equatorial easterly slack
Equatorial subsurface heat content
+1.4 std devUpper 300m heat anomaly across 5N-5S Pacific. Positive = warm subsurface reservoir feeding eastward Kelvin waves. Charges 2-4 months ahead of surface peak.
160E
+1.2
180W
+1.6
160W
+1.8
140W
+2.0
120W
+1.7
West → East · warm tongue extends to dateline
Downwelling Kelvin wave activity
ActiveEastward-propagating Kelvin pulses deliver warm water to eastern Pacific in ~2 months. Currently tracking 2 active downwelling pulses in the central Pacific.
- Pulse 1 origin~165E · Apr 28
- Pulse 1 position~135W · +18 d/°
- Pulse 2 origin~150E · May 14
- Forecast east-Pac arrivalJul 2026
Observation
Equatorial Pacific is in full East-Pacific super-El-Nino signature: warm pool extended to dateline, trade winds collapsed, deep convection over central Pacific, suppressed convection over Indonesia.
Interpretation
Subsurface warm pool + active Kelvin pulses imply Nino 3.4 still rising into JJA 2026. Cross-equatorial winds & Indian Ocean Dipole both supportive. Probability of peak >+2.0°C: ~65%.
Caveat
Spring predictability barrier passed but model spread remains. A single MJO event could disrupt timing. Watch for upwelling Kelvin pulses or trade-wind reversal — either would moderate peak.
Layer 3 · Drought Intelligence
● 5 active D3+ zones
Global drought tracker
USDM-style intensity scale D0-D4. Synthesized from US Drought Monitor, Drought.gov, EU JRC EDO, India IMD, Australia BOM, FAO ASIS, CHIRPS satellite precip. Updated weekly.
USDM intensity scale
D0
Abnormally dry
D1
Moderate
D2
Severe
D3
Extreme
D4
Exceptional
Top global drought hotspots
| Region | Class | Land area | Pop. affected | Crop area | Days dry | 30-d precip anom | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central India · Maharashtra/MP/Karnataka | D3 | 62% | 340M | 28 Mha | 47d | -58% | Worsening |
| NE Brazil · MATOPIBA · Cerrado | D3 | 71% | 28M | 14 Mha | 63d | -72% | Worsening |
| SE Australia · NSW/VIC wheat belt | D2 | 54% | 8M | 11 Mha | 52d | -48% | Worsening |
| Indonesia · Sumatra/Kalimantan | D2 | 38% | 120M | 9 Mha palm | 41d | -44% | Watch fires |
| Southern Africa · ZA/ZW/MZ | D4 | 81% | 55M | 7 Mha | 88d | -79% | Exceptional |
| Mekong · TH/LA/VN delta | D2 | 42% | 65M | 4 Mha rice | 35d | -32% | Worsening |
| SW USA · AZ/NM/TX | D3 | 68% | 35M | 2 Mha | 71d | -61% | Heat-dome ON |
| Central America · Dry Corridor | D2 | 59% | 12M | 1.6 Mha | 44d | -38% | Migration risk |
| S. Argentina · Pampas wheat/soy | D1 | 28% | 6M | 5 Mha | 22d | -18% | Watch |
| N. China Plain · HB/SD/HN | D1 | 31% | 200M | 8 Mha | 26d | -22% | Stable |
Crop area = farmable area inside the D2+ zone. Days dry = consecutive days < 1mm precipitation in lead agricultural districts. Sources: USDM, NOAA NCEI, FAO ASIS, GEOGLAM Crop Monitor.
Crop area currently in D2+ drought, by commodity
-
Rice (paddy)31 Mha (19% of global)
-
Wheat22 Mha (10% of global)
-
Soybean18 Mha (14% of global)
-
Palm oil9 Mha (32% of global)
-
Sugar cane7 Mha (24% of global)
-
Coffee arabica2.8 Mha (28% of global)
-
Maize15 Mha (7% of global)
Historical analog · total drought area vs. 1997-98
1997-98 peak42M km²
2015-16 peak48M km²
2026 May (current)52M km²
2026 Sep projected62-68M km²
Projected peak would exceed 2015-16 by ~30% in land area, driven by compounding ocean-heat baseline and SE Asia palm/peat zone.
II
Chapter Two
Markets & macro
How a thermocline tilt becomes a price spike. Commodity sensitivity, country exposure, and a global visual atlas.
Commodity sensitivity matrix
Twelve commodities scored for ENSO sensitivity (1-5), with main producing regions, current price (World Bank Pink Sheet / CME / ICE settlements), YTD move, scenario direction, and historical analog precedent.
| Commodity | Top producers | ENSO sens. | Spot (May 26) | YTD | Scenario El Nino | 1997-98 | 2015-16 | 2026 outlook |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rice · long-grain | India, TH, VN, PK | 5/5 | $622/t | +14% | Bullish | +12% | +18% | +20 to +40% |
| Wheat · HRW | RU, EU, US, CN, IN, AU | 3/5 | $268/t | +7% | Mod. bullish | +9% | +11% | +8 to +15% |
| Corn · yellow #2 | US, CN, BR, AR, UA | 2/5 | $189/t | -2% | Mixed | +4% | +5% | -2 to +6% |
| Soybean | BR, US, AR, CN, IN | 4/5 | $485/t | +9% | Bullish NE BR risk | +8% | +14% | +10 to +18% |
| Palm oil | ID, MY, TH, CO | 5/5 | $1,180/t | +22% | Strong bullish | +45% | +38% | +35 to +55% |
| Sugar · raw | BR, IN, TH, CN, AU | 4/5 | 23.4 c/lb | +11% | Bullish (TH+IN risk) | +13% | +22% | +15 to +28% |
| Coffee arabica | BR, VN, CO, ID, ET | 5/5 | $3.80/lb | +34% | Strong bullish | +24% | +42% | +30 to +60% |
| Cocoa | CI, GH, EC, ID, NG | 3/5 | $8,200/t | +12% | Bullish (W. Africa dry) | +18% | +9% | +12 to +25% |
| Cotton | CN, IN, US, BR, PK | 3/5 | 82 c/lb | +4% | Mixed | +3% | -1% | +2 to +10% |
| Nat gas · Henry Hub | US, RU, IR, QA | 2/5 | $3.85/MMBtu | +18% | Bullish (cooling load) | +12% | -8% | +10 to +30% |
| Copper | CL, PE, CN, US, CD | 2/5 | $4.60/lb | +8% | Mod. bullish (CL/PE rain) | +6% | -12% | +0 to +12% |
| Urea · fertilizer | RU, CN, MA, US, IN | 2/5 | $425/t | +28% | Bullish (Hormuz overlay) | +8% | +11% | +25 to +50% |
ENSO sensitivity: 5 = direct first-order exposure (e.g. rice depends on Asian monsoon); 1 = minimal direct effect. Spot = mid-May 2026 reference. Scenario bands assume strong El Nino with Hormuz fertilizer overlay; collapse to neutral cuts ranges by ~50%.
Softs call
Palm + arabica + sugar - long
SE Asia palm dryness + peat-fire risk; Brazil arabica + Indian sugar both ENSO-tilted. Cocoa already pricing W. Africa dryness; further upside if Harmattan worsens.
Energy call
Power scarcity in SW US + India
Heat-dome cooling demand + hydro-deficit in Mekong/Andes = nat-gas burn higher. ERCOT spot $1k/MWh days likely. India coal stocks at risk < 5 days.
Inputs call
Urea + potash — supply-tied
Hormuz transit risk + Russia-Belarus potash flows = input cost compounds yield hit. Watch FOB Black Sea + Middle East urea futures.
Country economic vulnerability
18 economies scored across agriculture share of GDP, food import dependence, food share of CPI basket (inflation transmission), and overall ENSO-shock risk. Public data: World Bank, IMF WEO, FAO, USDA FAS, national stats.
| Country | Ag % GDP | Ag % employ. | Food imports % | Food in CPI | FX risk | Fiscal headroom | Stability risk | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| India | 17% | 42% | 8% | 46% | Medium | Tight | Medium-high | Very High |
| Indonesia | 13% | 28% | 11% | 28% | Medium | Tight | Medium | High |
| Vietnam | 12% | 36% | 9% | 36% | Low-med | Moderate | Low-med | High |
| Thailand | 9% | 31% | 7% | 33% | Low | Moderate | Low | High |
| Pakistan | 23% | 37% | 14% | 38% | High | Strained | High | Very High |
| Bangladesh | 12% | 38% | 15% | 39% | Medium | Tight | Medium | High |
| Philippines | 10% | 23% | 22% | 37% | Medium | Moderate | Low-med | High |
| Brazil | 7% | 9% | 6% | 20% | High (BRL) | Strained | Low-med | High |
| Argentina | 11% | 10% | 3% | 27% | Very high | Strained | Medium | High |
| Peru | 7% | 27% | 11% | 26% | Medium | Tight | Medium | High |
| Mexico | 4% | 12% | 15% | 28% | Low | Moderate | Low | Medium |
| Australia | 2% | 3% | 4% | 14% | Low | Strong | Very low | Medium |
| USA | 1% | 2% | 6% | 14% | Very low | Strong | Very low | Low |
| China | 7% | 22% | 8% | 29% | Low | Moderate | Low | Medium |
| Egypt | 11% | 21% | 30% | 35% | High | Strained | High | Very High |
| Kenya | 22% | 54% | 12% | 38% | Medium | Strained | Medium | High |
| Ethiopia | 36% | 66% | 11% | 54% | High | Strained | High | Very High |
| Nigeria | 23% | 35% | 9% | 52% | High | Strained | Medium | Very High |
Food in CPI = food & non-alcoholic beverages share of national consumer price index basket. Higher = a 10% food shock transmits more to headline inflation and central-bank reaction. Sources: World Bank WDI, IMF WEO Apr 2026, USDA FAS GAIN.
Tier-1 risk · Very High
India, Pakistan, Egypt, Ethiopia, Nigeria
High ag-GDP, high food-CPI weight, weak fiscal headroom. A 20% food shock = 4-7 pts headline CPI = central-bank tightening + subsidy bill spike + civil-unrest probability.
Tier-2 risk · High
Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, Philippines, Brazil, Argentina, Peru, Kenya, Bangladesh
Material exposure but more buffer: stronger FX reserves, deeper ag insurance, or producer-side benefit offsetting consumer pain. BRL/ARS watch.
Tier-3 risk · Medium-Low
USA, China, Mexico, Australia
Diversified economies, deep capital markets, robust supply chains. Real impact via inflation pass-through (USA grocery) and grid stress (ERCOT) but not balance-of-payments crises.
Climate Stress Atlas
How ENSO 2026 maps onto the world — in four charts.
A global view in the spirit of Our World in Data: every chart titled, labeled, sourced. Hover for detail. Each tells one part of the same story — who bears the climate shock and how it transmits to food, prices, and people.
Chart 01 · Country vulnerability ranking
El Niño 2026 composite vulnerability score, by country
A composite 0-100 score combining agriculture's share of GDP, food import dependence, food weight in the consumer price basket, fiscal headroom, and historical drought sensitivity. Higher = more exposed to an El Niño shock.
Source · World Bank WDI · IMF WEO Apr 2026 · FAO · USDA FAS · author composite (2026)
Chart 02 · Inflation transmission
Where a food shock turns into headline inflation
X axis: share of food & beverages in the national CPI basket. Y axis: food import dependence (% of supply imported). Bubble area: population. Upper-right = most exposed to imported-food inflation. Color: 2026 composite vulnerability tier.
Source · World Bank Food & Beverage CPI weights 2025 · FAOSTAT trade balances · UN Population Prospects 2024
Chart 03 · Drought through time
Global land area in drought, by intensity, 2010-2026
Sum of global D2 (severe), D3 (extreme), and D4 (exceptional) drought area in millions of square kilometers. 2015-16 and 2026 spikes reflect El Niño-driven expansion of dry zones across SE Asia, the Horn of Africa, NE Brazil and southern Africa.
Source · US Drought Monitor · EU JRC EDO · CHIRPS-derived global compilation · 2026 projection scenario base case
Chart 04 · Small multiples
Commodity prices through past ENSO cycles & today
Each panel shows price (USD, indexed to 100 at start of 1997) for one commodity from 1997 through May 2026. Light grey vertical bands mark El Niño events (1997-98, 2015-16, 2026 forming). The link between dry tropical seasons and food prices is visible across all four.
Rice - $/tonne
Wheat - $/tonne
Soybean - $/tonne
Palm oil - $/tonne
Coffee - ¢/lb
Sugar - ¢/lb
Source · World Bank Pink Sheet · FAO Commodity Markets · CME/ICE settlements · indexed by author for visual comparison
Methodology
All data is open and verifiable. Where 2026 values are projections (drought area, prices Q3+), they reflect the 60% base-case scenario from Layer 6. Composite vulnerability weights: 30% ag-GDP, 25% food-CPI weight, 20% food import dependence, 15% historical drought sensitivity, 10% fiscal headroom (inverse). All charts reproducible from the Export Full Dataset button.
III
Chapter Three
Pattern & physics
Five super El Niños in the satellite era, the historical ONI overlay, the Walker circulation, and the Bjerknes loop that drives all of it.
Historical Case Studies
Every super El Niño in the satellite era — what happened, what it cost, who paid.
For each major event since 1982 we trace four states: the baseline twelve months before, the peak observation, the political-economic-social shock transmission, and the recovery twelve to twenty-four months after. The pattern repeats. The magnitudes vary.
Headline impact · chart 05
Damages and deaths attributed to major El Niño events
Estimated direct damages in USD billions (current dollars) and attributable deaths globally. 2026 figures are base-case scenario projections.
Source · NOAA NCEI billion-dollar disasters · CRED EM-DAT · Munich Re NatCatService · UN OCHA situation reports · ReliefWeb event archives
Case 01 · 1982-83
The first super El Niño caught the world flat-footed
Apr 1982 - Jul 1983 · Nino 3.4 peak +2.2°C Nov 1982 · Duration 15 months
Baseline (Q2 1981)
- Nino 3.4-0.3°C
- FAO FPI110
- Peru anchovy3.5 Mt/yr
- India monsoon101% LPA
- AU wheat16.4 Mt
Peak (Nov 1982)
- Nino 3.4+2.2°C
- Peru anchovy0.1 Mt (-97%)
- AU wheat12.6 Mt (-23%)
- India monsoon85% LPA (-15%)
- Indonesia fires~80 kha
Shock transmission
- Pol · Australian Fraser govt blamed for drought response, lost 1983 election
- Econ · FAO FPI +8% YoY · Peruvian sol crisis · fishmeal x4
- Soc · ~2,000 deaths · Ash Wed bushfires kill 75 (AU) · Sahel famine intensifies
Recovery (1984-85)
- Nino 3.4-0.2°C
- Peru anchovy2.8 Mt (-20%)
- AU wheat19.0 Mt rebound
- FAO FPI108 (-2%)
- Damages$8-13B total
First-principles takeaway
No ENSO forecasting system existed in 1982. The event was diagnosed only after Peruvian fishermen reported empty nets. Causality: trade-wind collapse → warm-pool migration east → upwelling shutdown → fishery collapse → FX crisis. The 1982-83 event launched modern ENSO science (TAO buoy network commissioned 1985).
Case 02 · 1997-98
The “climate event of the century”
Apr 1997 - May 1998 · Nino 3.4 peak +2.4°C Nov-Dec 1997 · Duration 14 months
Baseline (Q2 1996)
- Nino 3.4-0.2°C
- FAO FPI118
- Indonesia palm5.1 Mt
- CA snowpack82% normal
- Galapagos SST22°C
Peak (Dec 1997 - Feb 1998)
- Nino 3.4+2.4°C
- Galapagos SST+4°C anom
- Indo. fires9.7 Mha
- Indo. CO2~2 GtCO&sub2;e
- CA AR damage$1.1B
Shock transmission
- Pol · Suharto regime fell May 1998 (economic + fire crisis) · Ethiopia gov instability
- Econ · FAO FPI +11% YoY · Asian Financial Crisis amplified · copper -25%
- Soc · ~23,000 deaths globally · 11,000 km Peru coast inundated · 1st global mass coral bleaching
Recovery (1999-2000)
- La Nina transition-1.6°C
- FAO FPI105 (-11%)
- Indo. palm6.4 Mt (+25%)
- Peat carbonslow release
- Damages$35-45B total
First-principles takeaway
First event predicted in advance — NOAA flagged it in May 1997. Indonesia's peat-fire CO&sub2; release alone exceeded a year of EU emissions. Causality: Indonesia drying + El Niño slash-burn season + plantation expansion = unprecedented peat ignition. Carbon released took ~7 years to be re-absorbed by regrowth. The event made “atmospheric river” a household phrase in California.
Case 03 · 2015-16
Tied for strongest, fully forecast, still costly
Mar 2015 - May 2016 · Nino 3.4 peak +2.6°C Nov 2015 · Duration 15 months
Baseline (Q2 2014)
- Nino 3.4+0.1°C
- FAO FPI208
- GBR cover31%
- India monsoon88% LPA
- BR coffee45 Mt
Peak (Nov 2015 - Mar 2016)
- Nino 3.4+2.6°C
- India monsoon86% (-14%)
- Indo. fires2.6 Mha
- Indo. CO2~1.75 GtCO&sub2;e
- GBR bleach29% mortality
Shock transmission
- Pol · Venezuela hyperinflation accelerated · Ethiopia state of emergency 2016 · El Salvador instability
- Econ · FAO FPI +13% YoY · Sao Paulo reservoir 4% · Indo. $16B fire loss
- Soc · ~60M food-insecure southern Africa · 30M+ LatAm needed aid · ~10,000 attributable deaths
Recovery (2017-18)
- La Nina onset-0.7°C
- India monsoon95% LPA
- GBR cover22% (lasting)
- FAO FPI175 (-16%)
- Damages~$5B globally
First-principles takeaway
Despite advance warning, social-system rigidity meant similar magnitudes of harm to 1997. Causality: two consecutive sub-100% Indian monsoons (2014-15 + 2015-16) drained rural savings before the El Niño hit, multiplying distress. GBR mortality is irreversible on decadal time horizons. Forecast quality >> resilience capacity in determining outcomes.
Case 04 · 2023-24
Strong event in a record-warm ocean
Jun 2023 - May 2024 · Nino 3.4 peak +2.0°C Nov-Dec 2023 · Duration 12 months
Baseline (Q2 2022)
- Nino 3.4-1.0°C (La Nina)
- FAO FPI156 (Ukraine war)
- Panama Canal36 transits/d
- Amazon level28m
- Ocean heatrecord
Peak (Dec 2023 - Mar 2024)
- Nino 3.4+2.0°C
- Panama transits22/d (-39%)
- Amazon level12.7m (record low)
- GBR bleach5th global event
- India monsoon94% LPA
Shock transmission
- Pol · India banned non-basmati rice exports Jul 2023 · Panama drought-water disputes
- Econ · FAO FPI +8% YoY · cocoa $11k+/t records · freight Panama +$300k/transit
- Soc · Horn of Africa floods displaced 1.7M · Brazil dengue surge · Mediterranean wildfires
Recovery (mid-2024 - early 2025)
- Nino 3.4-0.5°C (weak La Nina)
- Panama Canal36 transits/d
- India rice exportspartial reopen
- FAO FPI158
- Damages~$25B est.
First-principles takeaway
A “moderate” El Niño produced disproportionate impact because it landed on a record-warm baseline ocean. Causality: the temperature anomaly is what matters — but the absolute SST drives biology + atmosphere. Panama Canal restrictions reshaped global shipping. The 5th global mass bleaching began. Rice export bans transmitted to Asian retail in weeks. This event proved the “higher baseline” thesis for 2026.
Case 05 · 2026-27 (FORMING)
Strong-to-super on record ocean heat · compound risk active
May 2026 - est. Mar 2027 · Nino 3.4 May +1.8°C · Forecast peak +2.0 to +2.4°C
Baseline (Q2 2025)
- Nino 3.4+0.6°C (neutral-warm)
- FAO FPI122
- Ocean heatrecord
- India monsoon102% LPA
- Hormuz statuselevated
Observed (May 2026)
- Nino 3.4+1.8°C
- IRI prob.92% JJA
- India fcst~92% LPA
- FAO FPI YoY+8.4%
- D3+ drought5 zones
Forecast peak (Nov-Dec 2026)
- Nino 3.4+2.0 to +2.4°C
- India monsoon88-94% LPA
- AU wheat-15 to -22%
- FAO FPI YoY+18 to +25%
- Indo. fire riskelevated
Estimated total impact
- World GDP drag-0.3 to -0.5%
- EM CPI lift+1.5 to +3.0 pts
- Food-insecure ++150-200M
- Direct damages$15-45B est.
- Coral 5th MBEongoing
First-principles thesis
Unique features: (a) record-warm baseline means the absolute SST in central Pacific exceeds anything in instrumental record, amplifying convective response. (b) Hormuz fertilizer overlay compounds Indian shock unlike any prior event. (c) Just-in-time global supply chains have shorter buffers than 2015. (d) Climate-adapted breeding partially offsets long-term losses for the first time. Expect 1997-style transmission speed at 2015-style magnitudes, with concentrated exposure in food-import-dependent emerging markets.
Comparison table · chart 06
Every major El Niño since 1972 · side by side
Direct comparison of the eleven significant ENSO events of the satellite era. Some intensity values are reconstructed for pre-1979 events.
| Event | Peak ONI | Duration | Type | Damages | Deaths | FAO FPI peak Δ | Key signature |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1972-73 | +2.1°C | 13 mo | EP Strong | $0.5B | ~1,000 | +30% | USSR-US wheat deal triggered |
| 1982-83 | +2.2°C | 15 mo | EP Super | $8-13B | ~2,000 | +8% | Peru anchovy collapse |
| 1986-87 | +1.4°C | 11 mo | EP Mod | ~$2B | ~500 | +3% | African drought intensification |
| 1991-92 | +1.8°C | 14 mo | EP Strong | ~$5B | ~3,500 | +9% | Southern Africa famine |
| 1997-98 | +2.4°C | 14 mo | EP Super | $35-45B | ~23,000 | +11% | Indo. peat fires, CA AR |
| 2002-03 | +1.3°C | 10 mo | CP Mod | ~$3B | ~1,200 | +5% | First "Modoki" recognized |
| 2009-10 | +1.6°C | 10 mo | CP Mod | ~$4B | ~2,000 | +14% | RU wheat ban → Arab Spring trigger |
| 2015-16 | +2.6°C | 15 mo | EP Super | ~$5B | ~10,000 | +13% | GBR mortality, Indo. fires |
| 2018-19 | +0.9°C | 9 mo | CP Weak | ~$2B | ~500 | +2% | Compound w/ trade war |
| 2023-24 | +2.0°C | 12 mo | EP Strong | ~$25B | ~4,000 | +8% | Panama Canal closure, India rice ban |
| 2026-27 | +2.0 to +2.4°C* | ~10 mo* | EP Strong-Super* | $15-45B* | 3-15k* | +18 to +25%* | Record-warm baseline + Hormuz compound |
* 2026-27 figures are base-case scenario projections from Forecast layer. Pre-1979 ONI values reconstructed from ERSSTv5.
First principles & the ocean battery
Strip El Nino to its irreducible parts - wind, water, heat, feedback - then layer in Friedberg's framing.
Walker circulation
Friedberg's metaphor
All-In Podcast verbatim
"Think of the Pacific as a battery. The trade winds are the charger. They blow warm tropical water westward, piling it into the Indonesian warm pool - 4-6m higher and 3-4°C warmer than the eastern Pacific."
"That stored heat is enormous - 11 million terawatt-hours. Roughly 60x annual human energy use, as heat."
"When trade winds slack off - every 2 to 7 years - the battery discharges east. Kelvin waves race across the Pacific. Convection cells flip. Indonesia dries. Peru drowns. India's monsoon stalls."
"Because the atmosphere is one connected system, the heat dump bends jet streams. California gets atmospheric rivers. Texas gets ice storms. The whole planet feels the discharge."
"This is straight-up Bjerknes feedback - 1969 physics. The novel part for 2026: we're entering on top of an already record-warm ocean. The battery starts at a higher voltage."
01
Heat = mass × temperature
Oceans store 1,000x more heat per cubic meter than air. Move 1°C of Pacific - the atmosphere convulses.
02
Wind moves water, water moves wind
Bjerknes feedback: warmer east weakens trades, which warms east more. The battery discharges itself.
03
Convection follows heat
Rising air = rain. Shift the warm pool east, the rain follows. Indonesia loses its monsoon. Peru gets one.
04
The jet stream is a teleconnection
Tropical heating bends extratropical winds. That's why Indonesia drives Texas ice storms and CA floods.
03 - History
2026 vs 1982, 1997, 2015
Real ONI data (NOAA CPC). Toggle events to overlay. Read side-by-side impacts.
ONI - Oceanic Nino Index
+0.5C = El Nino · -0.5C = La Nina
Friedberg insight What's different in 2026?
01 Higher baseline
Ocean heat content in 2025-26 is record-high. El Nino fires on top of an already-hot ocean.
02 Fertilizer shock
India: ~92% LPA monsoon + Hormuz-route urea/potash risk. 1997 didn't have this.
03 Tight chains
Globalized JIT logistics transmit a Brazilian or Australian shock to shelves in weeks.
Causal loops, MDA, 2nd / 3rd-order
Mental models that make El Nino intuitive: feedback, leverage points, product life-cycle thinking.
Bjerknes causal loop
Reverse the loop → slack winds → smaller gradient → even slacker winds → El Nino. Positive feedback makes the system bistable.
Mechanics
Rules of the game
Ocean heat capacity, wind stress, Coriolis, Bjerknes feedback, Kelvin/Rossby wave speeds. Non-negotiable physics.
Dynamics
What emerges in play
2-7 year discharge cycles. Each event has a unique signature: timing, peak, decay shape, geographic flavor.
Aesthetics
What it feels like
A failed monsoon in Karnataka. Texas grid collapse. Coffee spike in Brooklyn. The human story.
1st → 2nd → 3rd-order effects
| 1st-order | 2nd-order | 3rd-order | Mental model |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pacific SST +2C | India monsoon -8% | Rice export bans → food inflation → unrest | Inelastic supply |
| Trade winds slack | Coral bleaching SE Asia / GBR | Tourism hit · fisheries collapse · slow recovery | Hysteresis |
| Jet stream south | SW US heat dome + grid stress | ERCOT spikes → industrial curtailments → chip delays | Brittle infra |
| Brazil NE drought | Coffee/soy yields down | BRL weakens → debt-service stress → downgrade risk | FX-commodity loop |
| Hormuz risk | Nitrogen / potash supply down | India yields down further → next-year seed cycle hit | Compounding shocks |
| Andes flooding | Anchovy fishery collapse | Fishmeal prices → pig/poultry → meat prices | Food-web propagation |
IV
Chapter Four
Where it lands
Where the battery discharges — regional impacts, crop life cycles, and the India double-whammy.
Where the battery discharges
Click any region for the El Nino signature and historical precedent.
● Wildfire Globe · Observed
NASA EONET · daily
Active wildfires, all around the world.
Every fire on this globe is a real event from NASA's Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET) — each keeps its official source link (IRWIN, InciWeb, national agencies). No invented data, no forecasts. EONET keeps an incident open until an official close is issued, so brightness here encodes how recently each fire was reported.
Live 3D globe
Wildfire hotspots across the planet
Imagery
● Rendering globe…
Reported
≤ 7 days
≤ 90 days
≤ 12 months
older (still open)
dot size ∝ burned acres
LIVE
Data · NASA EONET v3 · Imagery · NASA Blue Marble & VIIRS Night · drag · scroll · click a fire · scrub time to replay the record
Each hotspot links its official incident record
Where they're burning
Open events by region · derived from coordinates
Largest active fires
Biggest by reported burned area
Fire log
| Fire | Region | Size (ac) ▾ | Last reported | Source |
|---|
The live wildfire feed (NASA EONET) is briefly unavailable. Everything else on the page remains fully available.
Where the calories break
8B humans run on a tiny number of crops in a tiny number of countries. El Nino rewrites the yield map.
Top agricultural exporters - 2026
FAO & USDA, ranked by 2025 dollar value. Risk tags reflect 2026 exposure.
India - the double-whammy
Farmers
150M
Fed
1.5B
Monsoon
92% LPA
Shock 1: El Nino drags monsoon below long-period average. Below 90% LPA = drought threshold.
Shock 2: Hormuz / Iran tensions threaten urea + potash. Nitrogen-dependent rice/wheat exposed.
Compound: Bad monsoon + fertilizer shortfall = multi-year setback through soil, seed, and debt cycles.
Local consumption vs export
High-export crops transmit price shocks globally. High-domestic crops transmit hunger locally.
Brazil
"Brazil is now #1 ag exporter - soy, beef, sugar, coffee, OJ. A bad NE Brazil year rolls into BRL, the bond curve, and breakfast prices in NY."
Australia
"AU is the wheat swing producer. When India fails, the world looks to Australia. In El Nino, Australia is also drying out. Two top suppliers down at once."
Hope
"Biology adapts. Drought-tolerant rice, heat-tolerant wheat, soy moving north into Canada. The next decade of breeding is the play."
Plant to plate · choke points
Five-stage life cycle per commodity. Hover any stage for the choke and historical precedent.
Rice - India + Thailand + Vietnam = 70% exports
High risk · monsoon dependent1. Plant
Jun-Jul monsoon · India/SE Asia
Onset late
2. Grow
Aug-Sep tillering
Deficit risk
3. Harvest
Oct-Nov Kharif
-5 to -12%
4. Export
Mumbai, Bangkok, HCMC
Ban risk
5. Consume
Asia, W. Africa
Spike 20-40%
Wheat - RU + EU + US + CA + AU = 80% exports
Medium risk · AU + India downside1. Plant
May-Jul AU · Nov US
AU dry
2. Grow
Spring Eurasia + NA
US OK
3. Harvest
Nov-Dec AU
AU -20%
4. Export
Black Sea, Gulf, PNW
Tight stocks
5. Consume
MENA + S Asia
MENA exposed
Soy + Palm - BR + US + AR (soy) · ID + MY (palm)
High risk · SE Asia palm + NE Brazil soy1. Plant
Sep-Nov BR soy
NE drought
2. Grow
BR summer rains
-6 to -10%
3. Harvest
Feb-May BR
Palm down
4. Export
Santos, Sumatra
Logistics OK
5. Consume
Feed, oil, biodiesel
Meat up
V
Chapter Five
What's next
Simulate the system, see the probabilistic forecast, then set the monitoring cadence. From observation to action.
10 - Simulator
Drive the system yourself
Move levers. Watch outputs. Compare to history. Pass the quiz.
Levers
Educate mode on. Hover levers for first-principles tips. Try strength up + fertilizer up to feel compounding.
Commodity projection vs baseline
Yield delta
-6.2%
Food-insecure
+148M
Grid stress
Elevated
CO2 release
+1.8 Gt
Mini-quiz · 5 questions
Quant Lab
Algorithmic ENSO strategy backtester
If you had traded a commodity basket using a simple ENSO rule, what would have happened? Configure a signal threshold, lag, and holding period, then run it through 54 years of ONI data and eleven historical events. Equity curve, drawdown, Sharpe, trade-by-trade P&L — all client-side, no backend.
Total return
+0.0%
vs buy & hold +0%
CAGR
+0.0%
geometric annualized
Sharpe (annual)
0.00
excess / vol
Max drawdown
-0%
peak-to-trough
Trades
0
Win rate
0%
Avg P&L / trade
+0.0%
Best / worst
— / —
Equity curve · strategy vs buy & hold
1972 · 2026 · 11 events
Method · equal-weight selected basket, no slippage or financing, returns indexed to peak event months, lag and holding-period scale base move
Trade-by-trade · per ENSO event
| Event | Peak ONI | Entry | Exit | Dir | Basket Δ | P&L | Equity |
|---|
Caveats · not investment advice
Illustrative backtest. Uses indexed proxy prices from World Bank Pink Sheet · FAO · ICE · CME settlements compiled per event. No slippage, financing, futures-roll cost, or survivorship adjustment. Equal-weight equal-vol sizing. Real implementation would require futures curve management and risk-sized position scaling. Past performance does not predict future results. Educational tool only.
Probabilistic outlook through 2027
Three weighted scenarios spanning Nino 3.4 peak intensity, monsoon outcome, food prices, world GDP drag, and CPI impact. Probabilities synthesize IRI plume + NMME + ECMWF + UKMO + JMA · consensus as of May 2026.
Base case
60%
Strong East-Pacific El Nino
- Nino 3.4 peak+2.0 to +2.4°C
- Peak monthNov-Dec 2026
- Duration9-11 months
- India monsoon88-94% LPA
- AU wheat yield-15 to -22%
- FAO FPI peak+18 to +25% YoY
- World GDP drag-0.3 to -0.5%
- EM CPI lift+1.5 to +3.0 pts
- CA AR sequences3-5 events
Upside
25%
Record / "super-Nino" episode
- Nino 3.4 peak>+2.4°C
- Peak monthDec 2026 - Jan 2027
- Duration12-15 months
- India monsoon82-88% LPA
- AU wheat yield-22 to -35%
- FAO FPI peak+25 to +40% YoY
- World GDP drag-0.7 to -1.2%
- EM CPI lift+3 to +5 pts
- Indonesia peat fires~2 GtCO2e
Downside
15%
Moderate / late collapse
- Nino 3.4 peak+1.2 to +1.8°C
- Peak monthOct-Nov 2026
- Duration6-8 months
- India monsoon95-102% LPA
- AU wheat yield-5 to -12%
- FAO FPI peak+8 to +14% YoY
- World GDP drag-0.05 to -0.15%
- EM CPI lift+0.5 to +1.0 pts
- La Nina transitionspring 2027
Model ensemble · Nino 3.4 peak forecast
- NOAA NMME+2.1°C (Nov)
- ECMWF SEAS5+2.3°C (Dec)
- UKMO GloSea6+2.0°C (Nov)
- JMA CPS3+2.2°C (Dec)
- IRI multi-model+2.1°C
- CFSv2+2.4°C (Dec)
Agreement: 6/6 models forecast peak >+2.0°C. Spread 0.4°C · consensus tight by historical standards.
What would invalidate the forecast
- AStrong upwelling Kelvin pulse in central Pacific would cool subsurface and clip the peak by ~0.4°C. Watch TAO buoy 110W.
- BSustained easterly wind burst > 4 m/s anomaly for 3+ weeks would re-charge warm-pool to the west and weaken the event.
- CNegative Indian Ocean Dipole emergence would mute El Nino's Asia drying tendency.
- DHormuz fertilizer flows normalize: removes the compounding India shock, narrows food-price scenario by ~5-7 pts.
- EActive MJO over Maritime Continent would temporarily reinvigorate Walker circulation and suppress East-Pacific warming.
Operational monitoring checklist
Leading indicators, thresholds, and update cadences. Built for analysts, traders, policymakers, and humanitarian operators.
Weekly Leading climate indicators
- Nino 3.4 weekly OISST · alert if jumps >+0.3°C/week · NOAA CPC →
- SOI 30-day running mean · sustained < -1.0 confirms El Nino · BOM AU →
- Subsurface heat content · TAO buoy 165E to 110W · NOAA PMEL →
- Trade wind anomaly · equatorial 5N-5S · ERA5 reanalysis
- MJO RMM index · track phase 3-5 (Indian Ocean) or 6-8 (Pacific)
- Kelvin/Rossby wave tracker · downwelling pulse status · Tropical Tidbits →
Weekly Agriculture & drought
- US Drought Monitor · D2+ area · Thursdays · USDM →
- India IMD monsoon · cumulative LPA % · weekly Jun-Sep · IMD →
- GEOGLAM Crop Monitor · condition flags by country · Crop Monitor →
- FAO ASIS · agricultural stress satellite index
- NASA FIRMS · active fire detections SE Asia + Amazon · FIRMS →
- NDVI anomalies · MODIS / VIIRS vegetation health
Monthly Markets & macro
- USDA WASDE · supply/demand balance · 2nd Fri monthly · WASDE →
- FAO Food Price Index · 1st Friday monthly · FAO FPI →
- IRI ENSO Plume · 19th of each month
- CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion · 2nd Thurs monthly
- World Bank Pink Sheet · monthly commodity prices
- National CPI prints · India, Brazil, Egypt, Indonesia
Quarterly Strategic / policy
- WMO ENSO Update · quarterly · WMO →
- IMF WEO update · world GDP & food/commodity assumptions
- WFP / FAO GIEWS · global food security hotspots
- Central bank statements · food/energy CPI emphasis
- USDA FAS GAIN · country-level production attache reports
- Export-ban tracker · IFPRI / FAO global trade restrictions
Threshold alert table
| Signal | Threshold | Implication | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nino 3.4 weekly | >+2.5°C | Super-Nino territory | Move to upside scenario weighting |
| India monsoon Jun cum. | < 85% LPA | Drought declaration probable | Stockpile rice, FX hedges INR |
| FAO FPI MoM | >+3% | Acceleration signal | Re-test EM CPI assumptions |
| NASA FIRMS SE Asia | > 5x baseline | Peat-fire CO2 release | Palm oil long, AQI advisory |
| Hormuz incident | any | Urea/potash supply hit | Compound shock - tier-1 risk |
| USDM D4 expansion | > 3 states | Exceptional drought widening | Crop insurance + reservoirs |
| SOI 30-day | < -1.5 | Walker collapse confirmed | Confidence in base case ↑ |
| Kelvin pulse east-Pac arrival | any new | Re-warming push | Track for ~6-8 weeks lag |
For investors
Long basket: ICE sugar, ICE arabica, BMD palm, CBOT soy. Short: EM food-CPI sensitive currencies (INR, PHP). FX pair: BRL watch as ag exporter rev offset.
For policymakers
Build buffer rice stocks Q2/Q3 2026. Pre-position fertilizer subsidies. Strengthen social-safety net cash transfers. Diplomatic engagement on export bans.
For operators
Lock in palm/sugar/coffee Q3 needs now. Plan ERCOT cooling load scenarios. Hedge urea exposure. Test supply-chain resilience for India / Indonesia / Brazil sourcing.
Open data · verifiable
All figures from NOAA, IRI, WMO, FAO, USDA, World Bank. Refresh simulates the daily 24h pull.
| Dataset | Provider | Cadence | Link |
|---|---|---|---|
| ONI 1950-present | NOAA CPC | Monthly | cpc.ncep.noaa.gov |
| Nino 3.4 SST 1870-present | NOAA PSL | Monthly | psl.noaa.gov |
| ENSO Plume | IRI Columbia | Monthly | iri.columbia.edu |
| State of the Climate | WMO | Annual | wmo.int |
| Food Price Index | FAO | Monthly | fao.org |
| WASDE crop outlook | USDA | Monthly | usda.gov |
| Commodity prices | World Bank | Monthly | worldbank.org |
| India IMD monsoon | IMD | Weekly | mausam.imd.gov.in |
| ENSO explainer + status | NOAA Climate.gov | Weekly | climate.gov/enso |
| Realtime El Nino measurements | NOAA PMEL TAO/TRITON | Realtime | pmel.noaa.gov |
| ENSO Diagnostic Discussion | NOAA CPC | Monthly (2nd Thu) | cpc.ncep.noaa.gov |
| El Nino & agriculture drought | Drought.gov (NIDIS) | Weekly | drought.gov |
| US Drought Monitor | NDMC / USDA / NOAA | Weekly (Thu) | droughtmonitor.unl.edu |
| WMO El Nino / La Nina update | WMO | Quarterly | community.wmo.int |
| Ocean & tropical analysis | Tropical Tidbits | Daily | tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean |
| Active tropical storms | Tropical Tidbits | Realtime | tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo |
| Weather radar & observations | Weather Underground | Realtime | wunderground.com |
| Free weather API (no key) | Open-Meteo | Realtime | open-meteo.com |
| Natural events feed | NASA EONET | Realtime | eonet.gsfc.nasa.gov |
| Crop Monitor for AMIS | GEOGLAM | Monthly | cropmonitor.org |
| Food security & analysis | FAO GIEWS | Monthly | fao.org/giews |
| WFP HungerMap LIVE | UN WFP | Daily | hungermap.wfp.org |
| Active fires (MODIS/VIIRS) | NASA FIRMS | Realtime | firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov |
| Global disaster alerts | GDACS (UN/EU) | Realtime | gdacs.org |
| WMO Severe Weather Centre | WMO | Realtime | severeweather.wmo.int |
| IMF World Economic Outlook | IMF | Semi-annual | imf.org/WEO |
Sample of the live JSON payload
In production the daily refresh fetches this schema.
Built by
David TPhung @davidtphung
A first-principles climate-and-markets intelligence system, designed to make global ENSO mechanics legible to operators, analysts, and citizens. Single-file. Open public data. WCAG 2.2 AA.
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Production
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NOAA · IRI · WMO · FAO · USDA · World Bank · Open-Meteo · NASA EONET · IMF
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